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Iran’s speed of re-integration into the global oil market is a million b/d question mark hanging over the industry.

How much additional oil will flow from Iran will depend on how quickly Tehran can ramp up after several years that effectively shut in a chunk of its production and how fast it can make new inroads into an already crowded market.

The International Energy Agency is fairly bullish about Iran’s ability to get production up in the near term, suggesting that shutting in some production during the past few years will have increased well pressure, thus making it fairly easy for Tehran to achieve a quick volume boost. Indeed, it says, some of Iran’s core oil fields such as Ahwaz, Marun and Gachsaran may actually have been revived under the sanctions.

A bigger challenge for Iran, perhaps, will be selling the additional barrels in the volumes targeted by oil minister Bijan Zanganeh — 500,000 b/d in the immediate post-sanctions period and a further 500,000 b/d over the following months, leading to a doubling of the current 1 million b/d export level within six months of the lifting of sanctions.

Goldman Sachs suggests that the ramp-up in production may turn out to be more measured, noting that Iranian exports through the second half of last year held at a two-year low. This is more likely to reflect greater competition between Middle East heavy crudes than Iran’s inability to maintain output, it says. So, even if Iran does have the capacity to boost exports, it’s likely to have to offer discounts, and, the bank says, given already low prices, this could lead to a more gradual rise in exports.

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